A few days ago, Russia’s Ministry of Justice put Levada Center, considered as the most independent of the three leading Russian public opinion survey organizations, on the list of “foreign agents.” “It is a very bad thing for us,” said the center director Lev Gudkov in a comment to the Dozhd TV channel. The sociologist explained that if the justice ministry’s decision were not successfully disputed, Levada Center would perhaps have to be closed. “With a stigma like this, we will just be unable to conduct public opinion polls. This will in fact mean the demise of independent sociological surveys in this country,” he explained.
It was decided to enter Levada Center into the register of foreign agents after the Anti-Maidan civic movement requested the Ministry of Justice to check the information that this center had received foreign grants, including some from the University of Wisconsin which “acted as an intermediary between the Pentagon and the Levada Center.”
Roman DOBROKHOTOV, chair, democratic movement “We,” Moscow:
“It is quite clear who stands behind this. For no one else but the presidential administration can make this kind of decisions.
“With the elections coming up, Levada Center is making sociological surveys. This pre-election time is pivotal for all the three Russian sociological services. There are two main reasons why it was decided to close Levada Center right now. Firstly, not only the Kremlin-sponsored official parties, but also the oppositional ones, such as Parnas, could use Levada Center’s services. But the government didn’t like it that the opposition was receiving sociological information from its own sources. Moreover, these polls showed that, for example, the Parnas party had certain success. One of the latest polls showed that more than 8 percent of the respondents were already prepared to vote for this party. This does not mean, of course, that they will come and vote, but I think that the very fact that 8 percent are saying they might vote for this party was annoying the Kremlin.
“Secondly, the authorities are apparently preparing the populace for some prearranged results, as is always the case before the general parliamentary elections – in fact since 2005. And sociological services have been playing a very important role. In other words, they are supposed to name a certain result on the eve of the elections. Then the Central Election Commission announces the same result, and the figures coincide too much. I only mean federal elections here.
“Levada Center did not give the figures issued ‘from above.’ Or, maybe, it was closed because of a two-fold difference between the turnout forecasts. In Levada’s case, 20 percent of people said they were sure to come to the elections and 40 percent said they were in general planning to come. Conversely, in the Public Opinion Foundation’s case, 40 percent said they were sure to come to the elections and 70 percent were in general prepared to vote. It is absurd, of course. A 70-percent turnout is absolutely impossible in a Russian election, especially of this kind. It is a very clearly preplanned figure, and the Kremlin was greatly annoyed that there were some alternative figures.”
“IT MEANS WE WILL HAVE NO ADEQUATE SOCIOLOGICAL INFORMATION AT ALL”
Levada Center director Lev Gudkov said they would fail to challenge the Justice Ministry’s decision and, as a result, the center would have to be closed. What will this mean for society?
“On the one hand, it is bad, for it means that we will have no adequate sociological information at all. But, on the other hand, there may be a plus in this. For people have been relying too much on the information based on sociological survey data in an authoritarian state. Even a more or less independent Levada Center could do nothing with the fact that any poll in an authoritarian society turns into a fiction. For this reason, even the relatively independent Levada Center still showed the figures that did not mirror the reality just because there can be no independent surveys by definition in authoritarian societies, where people are afraid and there are no independent media. So, the closure of Levada Center would just dot the i’s and cross the t’s.”
