Public debate “Ukraine-Germany: How to Turn Situational Partnership into a Priority One?” organized by the Institute of World Policy with a purpose of developing recommendations for deepening the relations between the two countries has recently been held in Ukraine. The debate was attended by Dr. Ulrich Speck, a Senior Fellow at the Transatlantic Academy in Washington and a Visiting Scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels. One of the participants noted categorically that the organizers of the debate are wrong and that a strategic partnership between Ukraine and Germany was launched in March 2014. An exclusive interview with Dr. Speck, a German expert, started with the question whether Berlin indeed considers Kyiv a strategic partner and how Germans in general see the role of their country in establishing Ukraine as a prosperous country.
Ukraine may become a strategic partner of Germany if it breaks its dependence on Russia. In other words, this will happen when Ukraine becomes a valuable country, a kind of an anchor for Germany in the region, which is adjacent to Belarus and South Caucasus. At the same time one should take into account the future of China. We have recently witnessed how Ukraine sent a goods train to China in bypass of Russia. The train came to the destination in 15 days. It is planned to reduce this term to 10 days. If we look into the future, we can assume that China is going to play a more important role in Eurasia, and Ukraine will become interesting, Russia’s role and its aggression notwithstanding. Therefore, Ukraine may be very interesting as a partner to Germany, but everything depends on its development.
“UKRAINE THEN HAS A CHANCE TO BUILD A COUNTRY THAT THEY COULD AND THEY WOULD LIKE TO BUILD. IT’S NOT SO FAR”
“I think Ukraine is first and foremost an opportunity. And it’s an opportunity for Ukrainians. Because this country has everything it needs for success. Only the political system is the problem. The people, the knowledge, the natural resources, the agriculture – it has also everything to be an attractive destination for investment and for travelers. And, unfortunately, it’s being held back now to go fully towards the West, where it belongs, from its culture, history, and from its geography, that it’s held back mainly because people in the West don’t feel comfortable about this country with Russia.
“So, one day some kind of settlements, stability I think, and then the second condition is reforms, less corruption. Especially the culture needs to be changed, so that corruption becomes something that is not officially accepted, not accepted by people as part of the political mentality. So, mentality needs to change. And if these two things come together, we will see an inflow of capital, also from Germany, from the West in general, and inflow of tourists. Ukraine then has a chance to build a country that they could and they would like to build. It’s not so far.”
“UKRAINE HAS A SIZE WHICH MAKES IT DIFFICULT FOR OUTSIDERS TO JUST GO AND TELL UKRAINIANS WHAT THEY HAVE TO DO”
“Ukraine has a size which makes it difficult for outsiders to just go and tell Ukrainians what they have to do. I don’t think that Ukrainians want to be lectured. My impression from our talks here is that it questions rather institutions, not how much money. And this is why donors in the West are skeptical. They are very much interested in having conditionality, because they think, if you put money in a corrupt system, then the money will just disappear. Then it’s not an investment. That’s why the West is reluctant to send huge amounts of money to the country, to the hands of officials.
“It seems to me that a more important issue here is institutions, the rule of law, and the well-known reform agenda, which is underway, at least on paper. From what I heard during my visit here is that people are ready, that framework is emerging, and there is still a lot of energy and will also on the part of civil society to push for that. But of course it’s also obvious that now the beautiful plans are hitting the wall of the power structure, deep hidden power structure in the country, big oligarchs.
“As for the money that needs to be invested, the question is about what is creating jobs. I think we know that it’s small and medium enterprises that are creating jobs. And if you create artificial demand by putting a lot of money there, it doesn’t mean that it will have a structure that is taking this money in, but it doesn’t mean that when the money is gone that this money goes into real investment and building of economy. And it’s more important to create real businesses and they will need foreign investment. And foreign investors are still reluctant to come in, because they are afraid of geopolitical instability and they see this country as still unstable.”
“IT’S IMPORTANT TO DEMONSTRATE TO THE WEST THAT YOU’RE CAPABLE OF IMPLEMENTING REFORMS”
“It is important to have success stories. It is important for Ukrainians to see that something is happening, so that they don’t feel desperate. And it’s important to demonstrate to the West that you’re capable of implementing reforms. But the traffic police have been created in Georgia as well. It’s obviously an easy win, because it’s not a deep structure of the state. If you talk about the judiciary, it’s a whole system where huge interests are at stake, such as impunity, such as the ability to manipulate the system for private interests. This is much deeper rooted, you need to have real competitive salaries, so that people are not forced to take bribes anymore. It’s a big dimension.
“The Americans are more pragmatic and quick, and go for the easy stuff, which is important, but you cannot only have success in the short term. You also need a longer term reform, and here the DCFTA and the Association Agreement together with the technical assistance and all kind of help of the EU, and EU countries are really aiming at more structural changes, more profound reforms which may take several years.”
“GERMANY SHOULD HAVE PROMISED THAT IT WILL DO WHAT IT CAN TO SUPPORT UKRAINE’S EU MEMBERSHIP”
“It’s a pity that Angela Merkel is so cautious about giving this promise, because every European country can apply for EU membership. And if Ukraine is a liberal democracy, market economy, and stable state, we cannot see anybody seriously preventing Ukraine from becoming a member of the European Union. Geographically it’s obvious. So, I think that the promise or EU prospective is there, and the best way to go down that road is to take the Association Agreement and the DCFTA, which is part of the Association Agreement, because it will bring Ukraine closer to EU standards. It’s a long path, and we don’t know how long it will take, but I think it would be easy to give this promise that Germany will do what it can to support Ukraine’s EU membership. And I don’t fully understand why Merkel doesn’t do this. I think it’s a mistake, because it could be a game changer, it seems to me, in Ukraine. And it also would be probably a game changer for investors. So, it’s unfortunate that she is not making this. But this is the reality, so Ukraine must take what it has. There’s a lot of support, there’s a lot of sympathy.
“On NATO I think things look different. The promise is just not available right now. It’s also sure that the promise of NATO membership will make your country more vulnerable to Russian aggression, because once you have the promise, you don’t have the security guaranty yet.
“Then you need to go a long way to actual membership. I would rather think about defense and do everything to make this country as it should be: a modern country with a good military, it should modernize its military, and take every help it can get from NATO, the US, the EU member states.”
“IT’S VERY IMPORTANT THAT UKRAINE DEMONSTRATES TO ITS PARTNERS THAT IT’S NOT A PROBLEM, BUT A PART OF THE SOLUTION”
“At the moment it’s becoming more and more visible that Russia hasn’t fulfilled its part of the Minsk agreements. Today it is building its military operations and the daily shelling is increasing. The situation is rather deteriorating. In that situation the argument that Ukraine needs to fulfill all criteria, while the other side is fulfilling zero criteria, I think we cannot keep this argument. I think you have OSCE observers, and German foreign ministry knows exactly what’s going on. And I don’t think Germany will upheld this pressure in a way it did in the past weeks, because Russia is becoming more aggressive, and whenever Russia is more aggressive, there’s more Western unity. And there’s more support for Ukraine.
“It’s good that Ukraine has everything in place, so that it can argue at international meetings that it’s not you who are blocking Minsk. It’s very important that Ukraine demonstrates to its partners that it’s not a problem but a part of the solution, whereas Russia is the problem.”
