Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has become what is probably best described as the number-one target – even superseding Vladimir Putin – for Russia’s nonsystemic opposition. The man reciprocates, demonstrating contempt (when a cake was thrown in the face of PARNAS leader Mikhail Kasyanov) and threatening to physically destroy the opposition leadership. The latter takes such threats seriously, not only because of Kadyrov’s video with Kasyanov seen through a sniper rifle sight. They – and I think most in Russia – feel sure that Kadyrov was directly involved in the assassination of Boris Nemtsov, Russia’s only charismatic leader. He was murdered demonstratively on February 27, 2015, in the heart of Moscow, halfway between the Kremlin and Bolotnaya Square.
Now about Operation Villain engineered by the Kremlin, starring Kadyrov as the main bogeyman for the nonsystemic opposition. Many in the opposition, including the political analyst, Andrei Piontkovsky (whom I hold in esteem and who had to flee Russia after writing an article about Kadyrov and finding himself exposed to persecution), believe that Kadyrov organized Nemtsov’s murder after receiving a direct order from Putin. Another, even more plausible theory is that Kadyrov had the opposition leader murdered because he knew from his sources in Putin’s inner circle that the Russian president would be pleased.
I believe that all the main decisions on Russia-Chechnya relationships and opposition leadership, even on government officials in the bad books (like Nikita Kamaev, ex-leader of the Russian anti-doping agency who planned to publish a book in the West on drug use in Russian sports and then suddenly died, aged 52) are made not by Ramzan Kadyrov but by Vladimir Putin. I further believe that the show with the investigation into the murder of Nemtsov, arrest of Kadyrov’s men sent to Moscow to murder him, Kadyrov’s threats addressing other Russian opposition figures was engineered by the Kremlin and its spin doctors. It is a good cop/bad cop routine with Kadyrov acting as the bad one, as directed by Putin who is the good one and the lesser of two evils.
In fact, the Kremlin has almost reached its target. Criticism against Kadyrov by opposition politicians and few remaining opposition media apparently overshadows the criticism against Putin. Also, under the circumstances the Russian president is no longer held directly responsible for the death of Boris Nemtsov. Piontkovsky says that Russia’s top brass hate Kadyrov’s guts because they can no longer have their snout in the Chechnya trough, that they blame him for the deepening conflict between the Russian military and Putin, that this may cause a rift, that his arbitrary rule in Chechnya may result in a military coup, that Chechnya should be separated from Russia, the sooner the better, otherwise Putin will have to start the Third Chechen War to resume control over the Kadyrov caliphate.
I am afraid that this is another graphic example of the Russian opposition’s wishful thinking. There has been no conflict between Kadyrov and Putin with regard to Chechnya or any other issues. As for the military, Kadyrov can be hated by majors and colonels on active duty or in retirement. These people can be loath to see a former separatist fighter in power while these Russian officers can no longer get slices in the Chechnya cake. But the four-star generals have never been especially concerned about Chechnya under Kadyrov’s control. Chechnya has never been their one and only feeding trough as they have had plenty of other venal opportunities. They aren’t likely to overthrow Putin because of Kadyrov or ever get around to making such plans.
Opposition leader Ilya Yashin submitted a public report on Kadyrov and Chechnya entitled “A National Security Threat,” but a copy of the document had appeared on Kadyrov’s many social network accounts several hours before the official presentation. Kadyrov contemptuously referred to it as “nothing but idle chatter” and it was meant to show that all opposition was being closely watched by him, that, where necessary, any opposition leader would meet Boris Nemtsov’s fate. Yashin’s report says that it is practically impossible to replace the Chechnya leadership under the circumstances; that the Chechen leader’s financial capacity and security and military resources make him virtually an independent ruler with vast room for maneuver. In the event of a political crisis in Russia, Kadyrov can rely on his resources in a power play on a federal level, even proclaim Chechen independence and withdraw from the Russian Federation, taking with him part of its territory in the neighboring regions.
If he wanted to touch a nerve with Putin, he didn’t succeed, for all I know. Yashin must be aware that if the opposition urged Putin to retire Kadyrov, the reaction would be the exact opposite. He might have counted on Putin’s spontaneous response, that he would force the villain Kadyrov to step down, just to show that he could do as he pleased. Again wishful thinking. As it was, Kadyrov declared right after the publication of the report that he considered his mission as the leader of Chechnya to be accomplished and that he wasn’t sure he would run for another term. One is reminded of Shuisky’s lines in Alexander Pushkin’s Boris Godunov: How will it end?/ That is not hard to tell. A little more / The multitude will groan and wail, Boris / Pucker awhile his forehead, like a toper / Eyeing a glass of wine, and in the end / Will humbly of his graciousness consent / To take the crown; and then – and then will rule us / Just as before.
Putin and Kadyrov know only too well that Kadyrov as the leader of independent Chechnya would last several months without Russia’s funds and weapons, and that he would never even dream of seizing power in Russia. Putin has no one but Kadyrov to run Chechnya the way he wants. Therefore, Kadyrov will either remain in office or be replaced by a puppet president who will be at his beck and call (the way Medvedev was with Putin heading the government). There was another president in Chechnya in the early years after Akhmad Kadyrov’s assassination, but few remember even his name. A democratic government should separate Russia from its former colonies, the republics in the North Caucasus, but this will happen one day in the distant future.
