Many things indicate that further destiny of the Viktor Yushchenko government, on which we pinned so many expectations and illusions earlier this year, looks in no way cloudless. On the one hand, there is more and more frequent (and not entirely groundless) criticism by the President of the state of affairs in this country’s fuel and energy complex, the situation with foreign loans for the Ukrainian economy, and attempts to embellish reality. On the other hand, there is a host of speculation in the parliamentary corridors, also leak in the press, that the government is doomed, a governmental crisis is imminent, and forces interested in the overall destabilization of the situation are doing their best to compel the Cabinet not just to change some of its ministers but to resign in a body.
Early this year, this was indeed a government that suited the parliamentary majority, but at the same time it was not a real coalition formed on the basis of that same majority with proportional distribution of portfolios in line with the weight of factions and groups and with the concomitant joint responsibility. Thus the Cabinet became not so much a government of the majority as a hostage of the majority and of the naturally evolving political situation. Simultaneously, it would be far from correct to consider the Yushchenko government a team of like-minded professionals.
“The government’s destiny will not depend on anybody’s political will,” said Volodymyr Lytvyn, head of the Presidential Administration, addressing regional press representatives, adding also that the fall and winter period will become “a viability test for the government and will confirm the unbiased nature of the current assessments.” According to Mr. Lytvyn, the main problem today is, of course, the way the fuel and energy complex works because, “on the one hand, statistically everything looks fine, but on the other hand, it’s a complete quagmire.”
A more detailed assessment of the situation has been made by Yevhen Marchuk, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine. He believes that due to a number of factors, the operational and strategic program for the government as a whole and the ministries of the economy, finance, and the fuel-and-energy complex is being either not being fulfilled, slowed, or even ignored altogether. Instead, as Mr. Marchuk thinks, there is speculation using language from the Civil War period, spread with the knowledge of Vice Premier Yuliya Tymoshenko, about building the Odesa- Brody oil pipeline (Mr. Marchuk’s view of this problem is well known: one must first calculate the real profits and losses construction of this pipeline would involve), the Vice Premier in charge fuel and energy makes irresponsible statements about construction of a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Ukraine, which has already provoked Russia to take practical steps in order to build oil and gas pipelines bypassing Ukraine, and the media are full of false and speculative information. According to the him, especially critical is the situation in the nuclear power sector: Ukraine now lacks UAH 1.5 billion to repair its nuclear units. He also believes one of the government’s serious mistakes was “running up an almost $700 million unpaid debt to Russia.”
However, Mr. Marchuk is confident that Ukraine will get through the winter without any upheavals, which means that at least for the time being the government has a chance to work. In their turn, the government, the Presidential Administration, and National Security and Defense Council should opt for extremely competent approaches to achieve this.
As far as it can be judged, such competent approaches might include a radical government reshuffle, but not complete resignation. Chief of the Presidential Administration Lytvyn in fact promised early ministerial-level changes in the government Monday before last. He reminded, perhaps not by accident, that Prime Minister Yushchenko put forward his proposals for the replacement of some Cabinet members while President Leonid Kuchma was still on vacation. One of these proposals concerned the Minister of Finance. However, “to replace the Finance Minister while the budget is being drawn up and voted on would mean undermining the budget-adoption process,” Mr. Kuchma said at the regional media seminar. This could mean that there is nobody to replace him with. Ukraine “does not have staff reserves in this area,” as the President put it, and that the President’s closest entourage does not have a clear picture of this situation.
However, this is unlikely to be the only change in the team, for some groups and factions, not the least important in the parliamentary majority, think it necessary to replace Ms. Tymoshenko by “a different person,” which Oleksandr Volkov, the Regional Renaissance leader, told the media the week before last without a shadow of doubt, adding he would not like to tell Mr. Yushchenko who exactly should be appointed to this post.
It is beyond doubt that the fuel-and-energy sector is in crisis. The existing obvious elements of a governmental crisis could well lead to a full- fledged crisis, not only governmental but also parliamentary and with politics in general, should the government and parliament prove unable to reach a compromise on cadres or to cooperate fruitfully in reforming the economy (especially in the fuel and energy sector).
COMMENTARY
Serhiy TERIOKHIN, Reforms Congress faction:
“Let us clearly define the very idea of a government crisis. If we were a parliamentary republic and the government were formed by the parliamentary majority, we could say that, because the government includes many persons whom some majority parties do not like, and there are a little more than a hundred ardent supporters of the Prime Minister among the Deputies, people who will vote for and support government decisions under any circumstances. Therefore, in terms of the number of parliamentary votes which unconditionally support the government, we can call this a crisis, for there are fewer than 225 votes. I think the existing majority is more pro-presidential than pro-governmental.
“As to the dismissal of the government through a vote of no-confidence, I don’t think things will go that far, for it would raise the question of the majority’s loyalty to the President. In any case, under the current political situation, parliament cannot make the decision to dismiss the government without the President’s political consent or at least neutrality. In this matter, the President is still sticking to his old position, though his voice has become more resolute. There are certain positive economic achievements, as well as errors, of the government, but there are no ample political reasons for the President to favor the government’s resignation. Hence, from this point of view, it is too early to say there is a governmental crisis. What we can say is that there is a crisis in the relationship between some Cabinet members and People’s Deputies or between some ministers inside the government, and this is a crisis of the government’s structure, teamwork, and ability to wield authority. This crisis has existed from the very outset. And I think that the latest joint voting by the Fatherland and Communist factions shows the beginning of a new game: to support certain Cabinet ministers, some fractions are ready to do literally anything, striking alliances with whoever you want, including the devil himself.”
Serhiy SOBOLIEV, Cabinet of Ministers representative in parliament:
“This artificially fanned agitation can be put down to our lack of experience in working with a parliamentary majority. Let us approach it from the opposite standpoint: is the Yushchenko government’s dismissal possible? Then I’ve got a counter-question: and is the majority’s existence possible in such a case? This majority is so fragile, so difficult to form. This majority voted so heavily for Premier Yushchenko. In addition, today’s government represents an absolute majority of the factions making up the parliamentary majority. How on earth can we speak about the government’s resignation without speaking about the majority’s breakup and the cataclysms that will erupt in Verkhovna Rada? Thus I think the Yushchenko government will exist as long as the majority does.
“As to cadre replacements in the Yushchenko government, the Premier himself says they are possible. But this will depend on the influence wielded in the majority itself by the factions represented in the government and numbering a large number of Deputies.
“But if the government fails to hold out after various replacements and provocations, the majority will also be different. However, in my opinion, Ukraine has already clearly opted for the principle that the government cannot exist without a majority. We have already passed the stage when previous Premiers used to balance on a floating majority depending on the issue. We have reached today a stage when what we call majority is unanimous in foreign economic matters and in its attitude toward Ukrainian statehood and the Prime Minister.
“Stirring up passions over the government is advantageous for those who are contending for the post of Prime Minister. I think what these people should remember is this that even the posts they hold today in parliamentary committees is a shaky affair. As soon as the government tumbles, this will also crush the majority, thus making it necessary to change the composition of parliamentary committees and governing bodies.”
Serhiy MATVIYENKOV, official representative of the Regional Renaissance parliamentary group:
“If we go by the current economic results, we can hardly say there is a government crisis in this country. Pay and pension arrears are being increasingly paid off, schoolteachers had been paid their regular salaries before the academic year began. The problem is different: we have too many unsolved economic problems, such as the natural gas relationship with Russia, tax burden, bringing the nation’s economy out of the shadows, nonpayments, and mutual settlements without money. So I would not say there is a government crisis or crisis of government. I would say only that we still do not see any concrete measures by the government to manage the economic crisis and achieve a breakthrough. But I think the current government team will work to the end of the year granted by the relevant Constitutional clause.”
Heorhy KRIUCHKOV, Communist Party of Ukraine:
“This government is doomed. It works in what amounts to extraordinary conditions, always getting knocked in the head by the head of state. It says it has achieved some successes, but we should not overestimate them. So the President is absolutely right in this case, for some improvements were possible because the Ukrainian economy has finally bottomed out. And any movement on the bottom looks like progress. When they say industrial output has gone up by 19.8% and do not disclose that inflation has shown a 19.8% rate, when the Accounting Chamber chairman says back pensions are being paid off while Chornobyl cleaners’ and students’ benefit arrears are on the rise, then the situation is clear: they cut off a little here and stitched a little there. So we can hardly speak about any improvements in a situation like this.
“As to developments concerning the Yushchenko government, I think this a clash between the oligarchs and Mr. Yushchenko in the struggle for the presidency. These developments will depend on what the President wants. As far as I can see, he wants to bleed both sides white. But the President also lacks complete freedom of action. Remember who Bill Clinton praised during his visit to Ukraine? Only Viktor Yushchenko. Now Mr. Yushchenko can be looked on as representative of that big force, which makes us all snap to attention. This quite complex situation will last as long as the President needs this government. Now he seems to need it. At any rate, there is somebody to put the blame on. Since this government is completely at the mercy of the IMF, it can hardly produce any positive results. It is not independent. This is a colonial government. It only differs from previous ones in that they were satisfying IMF demands and kept silent, while this one speaks openly about it.”
