Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued what was effectively an ultimatum to the US, demanding that it lifts the sanctions against Russia if it wants the nuclear disarmament to continue. In particular, he signed a decree terminating an intergovernmental agreement with the US on the disposal of weapons-grade plutonium. The decree says this was done because of “hostile acts” on the part of the US. The president has also introduced a bill in the State Duma which links resumption of cooperation with the US to the latter repealing the Magnitsky Act, lifting the sanctions imposed on the Putin regime over the annexation of Crimea and the war in the Donbas, and even compensating Russia for losses caused by the sanctions.
The Russian leader’s demarche prompted a series of harsh statements from leading US politicians. “If President Putin thinks he can bully the US, he is sorely mistaken,” warned senior Democrat member of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Elliot Engel.
Republican congressman Ed Royce blamed the Obama administration saying that years of empty warnings from it had convinced Putin that nobody intended to stop him.
Meanwhile, former Assistant Secretary of State and current fellow of the McCain Institute David Kramer sees the Kremlin’s demarche as dangerous development which indicates that Putin entertains a false notion that he can get away with anything.
“THIS IS ONLY ANOTHER STEP IN THE POLICY OF INTIMIDATING THE WEST”
Volodymyr OHRYZKO, head of the Center for Russian Studies, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Kyiv:
“I believe that Putin is just going on with his usual line, which is blackmailing the West. He intentionally chooses topics that are sensitive to the West. Nuclear weapons is something against which Barack Obama has very actively and consistently campaigned throughout his years in the office. For him, nuclear disarmament was the number-one topic of his foreign policy doctrine. He tried to push the world to lessen the nuclear threat.
“And now, we see Putin’s understandable response of increasing this threat. After all, the uncontrolled stocks of enriched plutonium are indeed a threat, as they can be made into new nuclear warheads, and we know the outcome of those.
“I believe that this is only another step in the policy of intimidating the West which Russia has conducted over the past two and a half years. And if the West does not respond, it will face more blackmail actions. We are seeing one of them at the moment.
“It is good that the US reacts to it and talks about imposing new sanctions such as the Ukraine-related ones. This means that we have only to wait a bit before the sanctions are expanded. And it is important to see how our European partners will react to it and whether they will join it.
“As for the suspension of talks between the US and Russia aimed to resolve the Syrian crisis, I believe the US waited too long to make this move, and think that all this Syrian horror show could have been avoided if the Americans acted adequately two and a half years ago, when there was the talk about the chemical threat posed by the Assad regime. Unfortunately, this did not happen. In fact, the Americans allowed Russia to enter Syria and start doing what it is doing there now. And it was a very big mistake on the Americans’ part. Now they are paying for it. On the other hand, I see some positive results coming from it, as the example of Syria is another confirmation, coming after the crisis in Ukraine, – that it is impossible to talk to partners such as Russia. All its promises are just empty phrases. So strategically speaking, it is a positive result as well.
“I strongly hope that the Verkhovna Rada meeting to be held on October 6 will deliver our first response to Russia’s latest actions. I mean the MPs voting on the repeal of visa-free travel between this country and Russia. I would like to see our government breaking diplomatic relations with the aggressor as well. We must call a spade a spade.”
“KEEPING THE PEOPLE FEELING LIKE THEY ARE FIGHTING AN ILLUSORY WAR WITH THE REST OF THE WORLD IS BECOMING THE PRINCIPAL TOOL OF STATE GOVERNANCE”
Semen NOVOPRUDSKY, independent journalist, Moscow:
“In fact, all this must be assessed in the context of further developments. And I do not think you can call it an ultimatum, because I have little faith that the US will carry out any of the demands put forward by Putin.
“This is less of an ultimatum to the US, and more of an irritated reaction to the obvious failure of Russia’s attempts to exchange Ukraine for Syria, to return to the international community as a fully-fledged member. It is clear that this strategy has largely failed. Although the US held talks on Syria with Russia, it is clear that the Kremlin has not achieved a fundamental turn in their favor. However, the main target of Putin’s new demands is the domestic audience, since we have now a situation of total confrontation and talking about the Cold War 3.0 has become trendy on the eve of the presidential election in Russia, which is very likely to be moved forward and held in 2017, ahead of the scheduled date of March 2018.
“It seems to me that all of this should be seen as another way to mobilize the populace in the face of persistent deep economic crisis and the evident political impasse.
“From a technical point of view, the situation was quite a stalemate. The agreement was so arranged that it was in fact suspended all that time. It existed de jure but not de facto. It is important to understand that Russia wants to unilaterally withdraw from the agreement which has never been implemented de facto and in practical terms. And it would not have brought so much attention if not for such a strange motivation offered for the withdrawal. By the way, the proposed bill will be one of the first to be considered by the new State Duma, which is to get to work on October 5. And this also has a symbolic effect.
“Firstly, such a move on Putin’s part should be seen as a signal, a response to the publication of the Dutch report on the MH17 disaster. After all, Putin’s statement came immediately after it. There is a feeling that the Russian authorities just did not expect that the report would point, even if indirectly, that Russia should be held responsible for what is considered an obvious state-sponsored crime all over the world. After all, the next phase of the Dutch investigation will list those involved in the Buk launch and the issue of those who gave the order will follow.
“Secondly, Putin has to keep the average Russian believing that Russia remains a great power which confronts the rest of the world and is hindered by it. Against the background of the economic impasse in which Russia finds itself, keeping the people feeling like they are fighting an illusory war with the rest of the world is becoming the principal tool of state governance or close to it. This becomes a technology used by the government to keep the country under the control.”
