Hungary’s referendum last Sunday, rejecting EU refugee resettlement mandatory quotas, was nullified because of a low turnout. The respondents were posed one question: Did they agree with the EU ordering Hungary to accommodate refugees without parliament’s consent? Yes or no. Although the turnout showed 40.41 percent, with 50 percent being the legally required minimum, Prime Minister Viktor Orban declared that the European Union could not ignore the will of the Hungarian people.
As it was, 98.33 percent of the respondents said no and 1.67 percent said yes, and Mr. Orban promptly called this victory, saying the referendum shows that Budapest has the final say in the treatment of migrants and refugees. On Sunday, Mr. Orban told reporters that his government would “start to negotiate the modification of the Constitution,” should the referendum turnout fall short of the 50-percent minimum, and later that day, on television, said the EU could not force migration policies on Hungary: “Can a democratic community [the EU] force its will to a member where 92 percent [of the voters] is against it? I promise, I will do everything so this can never ever happen.”
Analysts said he would argue that the EU membership referendum showed a smaller turnout, but no one would call its legitimacy into question.
The EU refugee resettlement plan provides for 160,000 migrants to be accommodated by all member countries, including 1,294 for Hungary. Starting in 2015, as many as 203,989 resettlement applications have been filed and only 880 granted international protection. In the meantime, Hungary has sold 10,000 residence permits to individuals in countries outside the European Union.
Many are wondering about official Budapest refusing to show solidarity – it being an underpinning EU principle – and share the refugee resettlement burden. Budapest’s statement that Hungary is displaying this solidarity by protecting the outer EU border sounds really amazing.
Guy Verhofstadt, ex-Prime Minister of Belgium, President of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe, wrote on Twitter: “Solution to the refugee crisis is not hatred or fear; we need a humane, common European response.” He has a point there. Too bad that some European leaders, among them Viktor Orban, appear to be using hatred and fear to consolidate power.
STRONG XENOPHOBIC MOODS IN HUNGARY, TARGETING ROMANIES, MIGRANTS, AND FOREIGNERS
Bulcsu HUNYADI, analyst, Political Capital Institute, Budapest:
“There were two factors behind the referendum. The domestic one was that the refugee issue had over the past two years become number one on the government agenda, and that now the government could enlist most of the electorate, including the right extremist party, Jobbik, and other opposition parties. That was what concerned most voters outside the ruling party, FIDESZ.
“The international factor was that Orban wanted to send a strong signal to the EU and European leaders, to the effect that he was being strongly supported in Hungary and that he could use this popular support to offer serious resistance to the EU refugee resettlement plan and migration policy in general. He has repeatedly declared that his main objective in coping with the refugee issue is closing the outer EU borders, to prevent refugee influx in Europe. Only then would it be possible to hold a discussion on refugee resettlement quotas within the Union, he stressed. The man has to keep telling this story to Hungarian society, and he has to be at odds with Brussels to keep this issue on the domestic agenda.
“Hungary is receiving large sums from the EU, yet this is not affecting the situation. For example, the referendum campaign has cost €48 million. This is very big money that could have been spent on a refugee resettlement program. However, the government’s objective is to keep fueling the fire of the problem. Strange as it may seem, Hungary used to be a transit country for migrants who didn’t intend to stay there. On the other hand, over 100,000 Hungarians are working abroad, so one could raise the issue of Hungarian migration.
“Hungarian society traditionally focuses on domestic matters, largely ignoring what’s going on abroad. A number of polls show that there are strong xenophobic moods in Hungary, targeting Romanies, migrants, and foreigners. In fact, the government has been waging an anti-migrant policy since the start of past year. This campaign is strongly influencing Hungarian society, with many people voicing official propaganda messages.
“Our problem is that the political opposition is weak, fragmented, lacking popular trust and leaders, demonstrating that there is no alternative to the ruling party, FIDESZ, and its policy in regard to refugee resettlement, above all in regard to Hungary’s official stand in the matter that should be solidarity [with that taken by the EU]. This problem relates to all, including the ruling party.”
REFERENDUM OUTCOME DESCRIBED AS GOVERNMENT’S FAILURE BY OPPOSITION PARTIES
Liubov NEPOP, Ambassador of Ukraine to Hungary, Budapest:
“The main reason behind the referendum was Budapest’s disagreement with the current EU refugee resettlement policy in general, and resettlement quotas in particular. Budapest stressed that the referendum was necessary to strengthen the current administration’s position when negotiating further steps.
“Budapest wants harsher border checkpoint control as a key factor of keeping the Schengen Area effective. Each country, they believe, must contribute to the settlement of the refugee issue on a voluntary basis – some by protecting their borders, others by accommodating refugees or by paying for their resettlement elsewhere.
“The Prime Minister of Hungary said, on October 2, 2016, that, even if the referendum turnout fell short of the required 50 percent, the results would be officially regarded as legally binding domestically. He further stated that he would shortly hold talks with the European Commission, concerning measures against migration. Mr. Orban stressed that the main point of the referendum wasn’t turnout but the yea/nay ratio. Considering more than 98 percent of yeas, according to the latest estimates, official Budapest sees the outcome as its victory.
“The opposition parties, however, are describing the results of the referendum as a failure of the official policy, stressing that these results are illegitimate under domestic legislation, considering the low turnout, urging the Prime Minister to resign.”
